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Part 3 · Operate

Revenue forecast

What the open pipeline is expected to bring in the next 30, 60 and 90 days, and where recurring revenue is heading.

01What it is

Every open deal with a value and an expected close date counts at its value times its stage probability, in each window its close date falls in. Three views: commit is deals in negotiation, best case is deals qualified or further on, the full pipeline is every open deal. Where your Stripe is connected through website analytics, MRR is projected from your own churn and expansion. It is labelled Expected, based on your pipeline, because it is an expectation and never a promise.

02Why it exists

A pipeline total treats a deal you met once the same as one waiting on a signature, so it flatters every week until the quarter ends. Weighting each deal by how far it got, and putting it in the window it is expected to close in, gives a number you can plan against.

It only holds if nothing is guessed. A deal with no value or no expected close date is left out and listed under Not in the forecast, with a box to add what is missing; a close date already passed is listed the same way. The probabilities are your own stage edits, then the deal stage table, then the defaults. Once enough deals have closed, the forecast offers the win rates your own history shows, says which it is using, and lets you go back.

Each week the forecast is stored. Once a window has passed it is held against the revenue that actually closed in it, so you can see how far to trust it.

03How to use it

  1. 01The forecast waits behind the revenue_forecast flag, and reads deals, so deals must be on for the venture too.
  2. 02On Deals, the forecast sits above Needs you and the pipeline: three views across the next 30, 60 and 90 days. Open any figure to see the deals behind it, each with its value, probability and close date.
  3. 03Under Not in the forecast, add a value or a close date to a deal in place and it counts.
  4. 04Analytics, Revenue shows the full forecast beside MRR, with the MRR projection, the goal line and how past forecasts did.
  5. 05The plan rail shows the next 30 days commit under the goal, and the weekly report adds one line with the next 30 days commit and best case.
  6. 06Ask your team can show it as a card with live answers on.

04What good looks like

You give it
A venture with one deal in negotiation worth $1,000, closing in ten days, at the default negotiation probability, and one qualified deal with no value.
You get
Expected in the next 30 days: $750. The qualified deal is listed under Not in the forecast with Add a value. The weekly report line reads Expected next 30 days: $750 commit, $750 best case.
Why
Each deal counts at value times probability in the windows its close date falls in; a deal with no value is listed, never guessed.

Derived from the rules in the code

05What weak looks like, and what it costs

You give it
A venture with one paying customer whose Stripe history starts 40 days ago.
You get
MRR is shown as it stands now, held flat, with the line that fewer than three months of history cannot measure churn and expansion.
Why
The projection needs MRR_HISTORY_DAYS of the venture’s own movements; with less it does not invent a trend.

Derived from the rules in the code

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